The global urban landscape is undergoing an unprecedented transformation. In almost every country on Earth, comprehensive master-planned cities are being built “from scratch.” These “new cities” are developed for hundreds of thousands to millions of residents, and they reflect a tremendous scale of ambition, coordination, and resources from national governments, private developers, international financiers, and nonprofit organizations alike. Of course, new cities construction is not a new phenomenon – Alexander the Great was building cities “from scratch” as far back as the 4th century BCE. However, never before have so many cities been built at such a massive scale in such a short amount of time.
The vast majority of new cities projects are taking place in the Global South, where rapid urbanization is quickly overburdening existing infrastructure. Since 1945, two-thirds of all new cities were planned in developing countries, and over 90% of projects announced in the 21st century will or have taken place in the Global South. Although Asia has historically been the most prolific new cities developer, both Africa and the Middle East are quickly catching up. The Middle East and North Africa region has announced 47 new cities projects this century compared to 44 projects in the prior 50 years combined. One of the most ambitious examples is NEOM, a $500 billion smart city in Saudi Arabia.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, a region that will add nearly one billion people to its cities in the next 30 years, over 40 new cities have been announced in just the past two decades. Ten of these cities, each with the capacity to accommodate 100,000 or more residents, have already been constructed. Tatu City, a city located 20 kilometers from Nairobi’s city center, spans 20 square kilometers and will have capacity for 250,000 people. The city already has over 50 commercial tenants, including the largest contact center in Kenya. Across the continent in Nigeria is Enyimba Economic City. Still under development, Enyimba will accommodate over 1.5 million people in a 95 square kilometer area. The city has already secured $150 million in financing from the African Export-Import Bank and construction will begin this year.
Judging by population, Global South projects are also the most ambitious. From 1945 to 2021, the average new city development in Asia was planned for over 1.3 million people. China represents over 40% of Asia’s active and ongoing projects. Sub-Saharan Africa closely trails Asia, with its average project aiming for 1.2 million residents. The largest ongoing project is Ramciel, the proposed new capital of South Sudan. Skirting the line between “new city” and “new province” – a line often obscured by national governments – the project will span 19,000 square kilometers.
The “new cities wave” is not without controversy. Urban scholars strongly criticize their development, warning that they are authoritarian, socially disruptive, and wasteful. Compared to historical projects, academics also highlight the privatized natures of recently planned new cities. In extreme cases, new cities are listed on stock exchanges and managed by CEOs. However, whereas the phenomenon has undergone substantial theoretical and qualitative investigations, there has been little quantitative verification.
To address the empirical gap, we developed the New Cities Map (NCM). The NCM is an interactive map and database that collects information on every large (100,000+ population) new city planned from 1945 to 2021. We identified 353 new cities that match our inclusion criteria. For each city, we collected information on its location, characteristics, management, finances, and governance. The NCM is publicly available to download, and it provides a rich resource to further study the new cities wave using rigorous, quantitative social science techniques.
Using the database, we evaluated some of the scholarly observations in the literature. Similar to existing research, we find that projects are more privatized now than in the past. In the 1940s and 50s, around 80 to 90% of new cities projects were led fully by the public sector. However, by the 21st century, private and public-private projects have become more common.
Contrary to the extant literature, our data does not suggest that new cities are merely “white elephants” and “PowerPoint cities.” Only 3.2% of new cities announced since 1945 have failed, and only 4% still live as “powerpoints.” The majority (over 90%) are either already built or undergoing construction. Even if we only look at cities announced in the past 20 years, 68.6% are still actively being built or have already received residents.
Likewise, despite concerns that prematurely building new cities may create “ghost cities” that no one lives in, the data shows that cities built in the past 80 years have matured or are maturing into full cities. Asia and the Americas have seen large population growths of their cities in excess of their initial plans, with the average Asian city growing 3.4 times more in population than planned. Although Africa and the Middle East have not seen their cities fill up, that may be a consequence of their infancy rather than lack of demand. For example, the average Sub-Saharan African city was only announced 13 years ago, compared to 32 and 57 years in Asia and Europe respectively. Kilamba, a new city built in Angola, embodies this paradox. Although the city was initially criticized as a failure unable to attract tenants, it has since filled in with over 80,000 residents.
The new cities wave raises additional substantive questions. Will these cities help address the burdens of rapid urbanization in the Global South? Can they be leveraged for sustained economic growth? Do they exacerbate social cleavages? Are they motivated by parochial politics? Yet, despite the prominence of new cities construction and the undoubtedly important role it will play in 21st century urbanization, the subject receives very little scholarly attention from social scientists. The NCM is a tool to motivate and inform further evidence-based research on this important phenomenon.
